NFL wild-card playoffs: Big questions, judging overreactions

The NFL playoffs are officially underway, with the Rams just narrowly edging the Panthers and the Bears taking down their NFC North-rival Packers to kick off the action. Next up is Bills-Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

What are the main lessons and takeaways from each wild-card matchup, and what’s next for these teams? We asked national NFL reporter Dan Graziano and NFL analyst Ben Solak to help size up every matchup from the opening round and look forward from all angles. For each wild-card game, Solak is answering one big remaining question and Graziano is judging the legitimacy of one potential overreaction.

Let’s jump in, making sense of the surprisingly close Rams-Panthers game, the wild Bears comeback, Caleb Williams‘ growth and Bryce Young‘s future. And check back all weekend for more snap reaction as games happen.

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GB-CHI | LAR-CAR

“Caleb Williams is going to win the MVP award next season.” Overreaction?

No, not an overreaction. The Bears fell behind 21-3 at halftime. Williams completed less than 50% of his passes and threw two interceptions. And despite pouring it on in the second half, the Bears were down 27-24 at the two-minute warning — at home as the No. 2 seed — to their oldest and most hated rival. It was all setting up for a massive Bears playoff letdown. Until they won.

Williams hit DJ Moore for a 25-yard go-ahead touchdown pass with 1:43 left to complete a furious comeback, and for the seventh time this season, Chicago won a game it trailed in the final two minutes of regulation. Williams can put you through the full spectrum of emotion on literally any snap. But you watched him pick up a fourth-and-8 and a third-and-10 on his way to the touchdown pass that cut the lead to three and turned the Soldier Field crowd all the way up to 11, and you probably thought something along the lines of, “Yeah, there’s something magic about this kid.” You watched him get the ball back after the Packers’ missed a field goal attempt with 2:56 to go and you thought, “Yeah, I kind of think he’s got this.”

Williams can make throws other quarterbacks can’t make, and he appears to be the kind of player whose pulse chills all the way out in the moments that send the pulses of others through the roof. That’s why even when it’s not going great, you feel as if there’s a good chance it eventually will. With Williams in his second season as an NFL quarterback and Ben Johnson in his first year as an NFL head coach, Chicago went 11-6, won a division out of which the other three teams made last season’s playoffs and still has a chance to win the whole thing. The Bears have young skill position talent all over the place around Williams. They can spend their offseason beefing up the defense, too. Is there a compelling reason to believe they’ll be worse next season than they were this season? Nope.

Williams should continue improving with this group around him and Johnson coaching him. If next season’s Bears win 12 or more, and Williams wins five or six of those in the final two minutes, he can be the darling of the MVP voting body. There are a lot of “ifs” there, sure, but this isn’t far-fetched. — Graziano

The lingering question: What’s wrong — and right — with Ben Johnson’s fourth-down decision-making?

The fourth-down haters were out in full force at the end of the first half, as Johnson’s Bears went 1-for-4 there, including a failed fourth-and-5 at their 32-yard line. This was a particularly aggressive call. The NFL Next Gen Stats model favored a punt, while the ESPN model very, very narrowly favored a “go.”

Should Johnson have gone for all those early fourth downs? I’m not sure. The defense felt as if it had no stops in it, but as evidenced by the second half, it did. It’s hard to know from the outside what goes into every decision.

What we can say confidently is that the Bears were making massive, easy mistakes on fourth down. The interception targeting Luther Burden III on fourth-and-6 came because the rookie receiver was confused at the line. The second-half fourth-and-1 failure in the red zone was a result of a blown pass protection. Even the fourth-and-5, way backed up, looked like a huge Burden catch-and-run … until the ball was tipped at the line.

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D’Andre Swift sends Soldier Field into frenzy with touchdown

D’Andre Swift finds the end zone to the delight of the Chicago faithful in the fourth quarter.

The story of the Bears’ win — and the Bears’ season — isn’t one of decisions; it’s one of execution. Chicago made a lot of sloppy mistakes on offense to start the season and improved later in the schedule. In this first playoff game for a young offense, the Bears made plenty of easy mistakes and improved as the game progressed. These cardiac Bears are living by the hair on their chinny chin chins, and its hard to win all of your playoff games that way. But they are doing exactly what a young team needs to do in the playoffs: settling down, fighting back and learning what it takes to win January football. — Solak

“Bryce Young is going to get a top-10 QB contract this offseason.” Overreaction?

Yes, overreaction. Look, massive respect to Young and the Panthers here. The Rams won, but Carolina made all of us who thought it could pull off an upset look good. Young was fearless and fun and everything teams want their quarterbacks to be in big moments. He was 21-for-40 for 264 yards and a touchdown pass, and he also ran for a touchdown. He hit Jalen Coker for the go-ahead TD with 2:39 to go, only to watch his defense inexplicably go into prevent mode with way too much time left, as the Rams marched down the field for the winning score. But Young did everything he could to try to keep his season — in which he threw for 3,011 yards, 23 touchdown passes and 11 interceptions for a division champion — alive. Yes, an 8-9 division champion, but still.

All of that said, it’s too soon for the Panthers to commit. If Young wants to sign a Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield type of deal, go ahead and do that, Carolina. Well worth it, given the promise Young showed this season and the investment the team has already made in him. But if he wants Tua Tagovailoa money? Uh-uh.

Young is signed through 2026, and the Panthers have an option for 2027, which I feel extremely confident they will pick up because there’s no reason not to do so. They’ll basically have him for $30 million over the next two years if they do that. That’s a totally reasonable investment that would allow them to gather more data and decide whether he’s the franchise guy they believed him to be when they traded up to select him first in 2023. The fifth-year option (and the franchise tag, frankly, if they want to do that in 2028) afford the team the opportunity to make Young prove it again.

Young doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who needs the affirmation that would come with the long-term deal. I’m sure he knows a ton of things he can do better and looks forward to a chance to work on them. Heck, he’s better off waiting and having an even better year in 2026 and negotiating off that. Big hat tip to Young and the Panthers, but it’s still way early. — Graziano

The lingering question: What have the two games against the Panthers taught us about the Rams?

There are plenty of big differences between the Panthers’ regular-season upset of the Rams and their near postseason repeat. The connecting thread is how successfully the Panthers tested the Rams’ defensive backs in coverage. In the first matchup, it was with shot plays late in drives to score big touchdowns; in this game, the Panthers ripped off explosives to Tetairoa McMillan and Coker. The ball came out fast from Young, which helped neutralize the Rams’ pass rush, as Carolina wagered on its supersized receivers against the Rams’ smaller defensive backs. It generally worked.

Nickelback Quentin Lake returned to the starting lineup for the first time since Week 11, and the Panthers immediately tested him, too. Lake was targeted 10 times and allowed 7 receptions for 83 yards, as the big slot Coker in particular gave him trouble (5 catches on 5 targets for 62 yards). As the Rams advance, I’d expect more teams to test that secondary in 50-50 and contested situations, whether deep down the sideline or in the middle of the field. It isn’t a big group, and physical receivers give it challenges accordingly.

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Panthers fail to convert on 4th down, Rams advance

Jimmy Horn Jr. is unable to haul in the pass on 4th down, sealing a victory for the Rams.

Of course, the Rams have struggled with turnovers against Carolina, as well: three takeaways in the first game, then one (plus the blocked punt) in the second game. In general, the Panthers do well discouraging the play-action pass and forcing Matthew Stafford to play more patiently. And when he plays patiently, he’s forced to scramble more or take more checkdowns — not his preferred style of play. — Solak