The wild-card round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is nearing completion, and the divisional round matchups are taking shape. The NFC pairings are set: The San Francisco 49ers will play at the Seattle Seahawks, and the Los Angeles Rams will face the Bears in Chicago. One AFC game is set, too, as the Buffalo Bills will play at the Denver Broncos on Saturday. The New England Patriots will host the winner of Monday’s wild-card game between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers next Sunday.
To look ahead at these games, we asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick out one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Seahawks and Broncos, who didn’t play this week, Brady Henderson and Jeff Legwold provided some information from what they did during the bye week.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championship games, and we provided projections from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and opening lines.
Let’s start with the 49ers versus the Seahawks.
Jump to a matchup:
SF-SEA | LAR-CHI
BUF-DEN | TBD-NE
NFC
When: TBD Saturday
FPI projection: SEA, 60.0%
Opening line: SEA -7 (46.5)
What we learned about the 49ers in the wild-card round: Common sense would suggest that a team playing without so many of its biggest stars — edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner and, as of Sunday, tight end George Kittle — would eventually run out of the magic that has defined its unlikely postseason run. Sunday was not that day. Despite another devastating injury to a team leader, these Niners continue to defy conventional wisdom and carve a path few could have foreseen before the season. Sunday’s lesson was a familiar one: As long as these Niners get to keep playing, it’s unwise to count them out. — Nick Wagoner
What the Seahawks did during their bye week: It was hardly an off week for the Seahawks. They practiced outside in the elements on Wednesday and Thursday — in a light rain Wednesday and with temperatures in the low 40s and the wind blowing both days — as coach Mike Macdonald tried to get his team accustomed to playing in the kind of weather it might see in the postseason. “We’re not treating it like a regular-season bye week where guys are flying to Mexico and Hawaii and enjoying their time,” Pro Bowl defensive lineman Leonard Williams said. “I think we really celebrated that win against the Niners. But immediately that next day, you could tell guys were like, ‘Hey, the job is not done. We’ve got a lot of work to do.'” — Brady Henderson
Why the 49ers will win: Because Sam Darnold is not the same player he was at the beginning of the season. Ten weeks into the campaign, the Seahawks quarterback led the NFL in QBR (77.8). But in Week 11, Seattle lost at the Rams, and from that moment forward, Darnold ranked 27th (36.9) in the same metric! The 49ers will not fall into the trap other teams have against Seattle: matching the Seahawks’ big personnel with base defensive personnel. San Francisco is a nickel-heavy team, which will either invite Seattle to run or force Darnold into less favorable passing situations. And for all that went wrong in the 49ers’ regular-season finale, they still held the Seahawks to just 13 points.
Giving San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan two weeks to study film after that loss might be enough for him to find some new ways to beat that seemingly impenetrable Macdonald defense. And the 49ers have a good passing game; they’ve averaged 0.17 expected points added (EPA) per dropback, which ranked sixth best among all teams and fifth best among those that made the playoffs. With All-Pro offensive tackle Trent Williams expected to play (he missed the Week 18 matchup), the 49ers definitely have a chance here.
Why the Seahawks will win: They proved it Week 18 in the battle for the No. 1 seed. Seattle shut down the 49ers’ offense with its ferocious defense, holding San Francisco to only three points. It was hardly an aberration: Seattle has the best defense in football, and the stats are undeniable. No. 1 in EPA allowed per play. No. 1 in opponent’s success rate. And one of my favorites: minus-30 first downs over expectation allowed on opponent runs, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, doubling up the next-best team in the regular season (the Houston Texans at minus-15).
But there’s another reason for Seahawks optimism: While their passing game has not been the same in the second half of the season, they can offset that with a more reliable rushing attack against a 49ers defense that is hurting at linebacker. Warner and Tatum Bethune are out, and Dee Winters missed San Francisco’s wild-card game too. — Walder
Matchup background: These teams met Jan. 3 at Levi’s Stadium, with the Seahawks beating the 49ers 13-3 to clinch the NFC West and homefield advantage throughout the conference playoffs. The 49ers defeated Seattle 17-13 in the season opener at Lumen Field, with San Francisco forcing a late turnover to hold on. These franchises have split two previous playoff matchups, with Seattle winning the 2013 NFC Championship Game and the 49ers knocking out the Seahawks in the 2022 wild-card round. — ESPN
Stat to know: Darnold led the NFL with 20 turnovers this season (14 interceptions, six fumbles lost). This is the first time dating to 1978 that a player on a No. 1-seeded team has led the league in turnovers. — ESPN Research
0:17
Purdy finds McCaffrey for TD to put 49ers ahead late
Brock Purdy throws a touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey to give the 49ers the lead late in the fourth quarter vs. the Eagles.
When: TBD Sunday
FPI projection: LAR, 61.9%
Opening line: LAR -4.5 (51.5)
What we learned about the Rams in the wild-card round: The football world once again saw why the Rams feel so confident in those got-to-have-it situations with Matthew Stafford at quarterback. Stafford led the Rams on two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against the Panthers, including one with 38 seconds left. “That’s why we’re advancing, because of his leadership,” Rams coach Sean McVay said. Stafford now has four career game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game. According to ESPN Research, the only signal-caller with more since Stafford joined the Rams in 2021 is Patrick Mahomes with six. — Sarah Barshop
What we learned about the Bears in the wild-card round: The Bears continue to be one of the best second-half teams in the NFL. After trailing Green Bay 21-3 at halftime, Chicago scored 25 points in the fourth quarter to beat the Packers 31-27. But as they’ve been saying all season, the Bears need to start faster on both sides of the ball. Chicago’s defense pressured Packers quarterback Jordan Love on only 18% of his dropbacks in the first half (versus 32% in the second half, including four times on Green Bay’s final drive). Caleb Williams and the Bears’ offense struggled until the QB turned his deep-ball passing around in the second half, when Williams was 7-of-13 for 166 yards and a touchdown on passes of 15 or more air yards. In the first half, Williams was 2-for-5 for 40 yards with an interception on such throws. — Courtney Cronin
Why the Rams will win: The Rams are arguably the best team in football — and the Bears are not. Don’t get me wrong: Chicago deserves plenty of credit for its remarkable season, but the numbers clearly favor Los Angeles. The Rams are ranked second in EPA per play on offense, and they have the MVP favorite at quarterback, the best wide receiver in football in Puka Nacua and a solid offensive line that will give Stafford all day to throw against the Bears’ lacking pass rush.
The Bears have a strong running game, and we’ve certainly seen Williams have incredible moments. But in terms of EPA per play, the Rams have the advantage on both sides of the ball. Plus, we could argue that we didn’t see the true version of the Rams in the wild-card round after Stafford suffered an early finger injury (but still managed to orchestrate a comeback, anyway). And if Nacua had not had an incredibly uncharacteristic drop on what surely would have been a touchdown at the end of the first half, the Rams might have beaten the Panthers more comfortably.
And while the Rams’ defense is not perfect, each of the major players on the line — Jared Verse, Kobie Turner, Braden Fiske and Poona Ford — can create mayhem for their opponents.
1:04
Recapping the Bears’ comeback win over Packers
Kimberley A. Martin recaps the performance of Caleb Williams and the Bears against the Packers.
Why the Bears will win: They can never be ruled out. Chicago added to its season of improbable victories with an incredible come-from-behind win over the Packers in which the Bears entered the fourth quarter down 15 points and exited it up four. In between, we witnessed the Bears at their absolute best. Williams made the throw of a lifetime on fourth-and-8 to keep Chicago’s hopes alive, and coach Ben Johnson used an imbalanced line to sell the screen of a screen-and-go, fooling the Packers’ secondary and freeing DJ Moore for a touchdown.
But what makes Chicago so threatening is that it won despite not even being the best version of itself. In the regular season, the Bears averaged a 48% success rate on designed runs (third best), but that number dropped to 28% against Green Bay. And even in victory, Williams had a 28% off-target rate and a minus-14% completion percentage over expectation (per NFL Next Gen Stats) — both solidly worse than his regular-season marks. The Bears will be home underdogs against the Rams, and Los Angeles’ offense should have a serious advantage over the Bears’ defense. But the Bears can generate turnovers, forcing a league-high 33 in the regular season. They’ll need more of that turnover variance to go their way against the Rams, but it’s doable. — Walder
Matchup background: The Rams and the Bears did not play this season, with their most recent matchup coming in Week 4 of 2024. Chicago prevailed 24-18 at Soldier Field, breaking a three-game losing streak to Los Angeles. This is only the third postseason matchup between these franchises and the first in 40 years. The Bears defeated the Rams 24-0 in the 1985 NFC Championship Game en route to the Super Bowl XX title, which is Chicago’s most recent NFL championship. — ESPN
Stat to know: After being sacked two or more times in 15 games last season, Williams has been sacked one or zero times in 11 games in 2025 (including Saturday’s playoff victory). The Rams had 47 sacks in the regular season and added two more in their wild-card win over Carolina. — ESPN Research
AFC
When: TBD Saturday
FPI projection: BUF, 50.3%
Opening line: DEN -1.5 (46.5)
What we learned about the Bills in the wild-card round: The Bills can win on the road in the postseason. After coming into the game against the Jaguars with the second-longest road playoff losing streak in NFL history (eight straight), Buffalo got its first win away from Orchard Park, New York, in the playoffs under coach Sean McDermott and the first under any coach since 1992. They also did it in comeback fashion. This is a needed boost for the Bills as their postseason journey continues on the road next week. — Alaina Getzenberg
What the Broncos did during their bye week: Broncos coach Sean Payton tried to put the team in a playoff mode during the bye week, especially in Friday’s practice, when it was starters against starters for most of the team drills. Payton said he was “salty” at the offense’s performance in Denver’s regular-season finale, when it didn’t score a touchdown and was 0-of-3 in red zone trips in a 19-3 win. Payton said the offense “will have to be better” for any postseason run. He believes it will be important for the Broncos to be aggressive offensively, adding that “we’ll definitely stretch the ball down the field. We’ll be aggressive in how we call these games.” — Jeff Legwold
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive simplicity, but the thesis for Buffalo is that Allen is the best quarterback in the playoffs and can put the team on his back. That is exactly what he did in the wild-card round against the Jaguars.
Allen was battered and bruised throughout, but it didn’t stop him from compiling an astounding 87.3 QBR and plus-9% completion percentage over expectation, per Next Gen Stats, along with a passing touchdown and another on the ground. Despite all the knocks he took from Jacksonville, Allen still delivered two critical blows on the Bills’ final drive. He connected on a 36-yard shot to Brandin Cooks under pressure from a free rusher and then — thanks in major part to his linemen — powered a 10-yard tush push to the goal line.
Will those sorts of performances be tougher to pull off against a dangerous Broncos defense that can mitigate Allen’s impact both on the ground and through the air? You bet. But the real answer to this question is not actually just Allen. It’s Allen, his running backs and one of the better offensive lines in the league. Last season’s MVP is not out there alone, and the Broncos’ defensive front might not look quite so dominant against Buffalo’s collection of talent.
Why the Broncos will win: Because Denver’s defense is the perfect antidote to Buffalo’s offense. Allen wants to throw the ball? He must go against the No. 1 defense in terms of success rate against opposing dropbacks, thanks to a feisty pass rush and All-Pro cornerback Pat Surtain II. Should Buffalo decide to lean on its strong running game, it’s not much better, as the Broncos rank fourth in success rate against them on designed runs.
But it’s not just defense that favors the Broncos. Quarterback Bo Nix is probably playing the best football of his pro career. Since Denver’s Week 12 bye, Nix has a 67.2 QBR (seventh best), with low interception (1.2%) and sack (4.0%) rates. And with one of the league’s best offensive lines in front of him, Nix should have plenty of time to work. — Walder
Matchup background: The Bills and Broncos last met in the 2024 wild-card round, as Buffalo defeated Denver 31-7 in the Broncos’ first playoff game in eight seasons. They’ve played one other time in the playoffs, as the Bills narrowly edged the Broncos in the 1991 AFC Championship Game to advance to Super Bowl XXVI. — ESPN
Stat to know: Allen became the second player in NFL history with a go-ahead passing touchdown and go-ahead rushing touchdown in the fourth quarter of the same playoff game, joining 49ers quarterback Alex Smith in the 2011 NFC divisional round against the Saints. — ESPN Research
0:34
10-yard tush push leads to go-ahead Bills TD
Josh Allen gets pushed almost all the way into the end zone to set up the Bills’ go-ahead TD.
When: TBD Sunday
Early FPI projection: NE, 57.3%
What we learned about the Patriots in the wild-card round: They can win a defensive, field-position struggle. The Patriots haven’t been in many low-scoring games this season and got a big effort from their defense against the Chargers, especially considering their first touchdown didn’t come until the fourth quarter. Rookie kicker Andy Borregales was perfect on his three field goal attempts, and the defense sacked Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert five times and held Los Angeles to 207 yards of total offense. — Mike Reiss
Why the Patriots will win: Their passing attack. With quarterback Drake Maye — whom I believe is the deserving MVP — at the helm, the Patriots racked up 0.26 EPA per dropback this season, best in the NFL. Another way to put it? Every four times the Patriots called a designed pass they gained a net point in expectation. That’s remarkable, regardless of who they played. Don’t believe the numbers? Go rewatch Maye’s 28-yard touchdown dime to Hunter Henry in Sunday night’s wild-card win over the Chargers.
It’s true that the rest of the Patriots’ team is not perfect. New England struggled to run the ball early in the season (but ranked fourth in success rate on designed runs from Week 12 on!) and its defense has been solid but not special over the course of the season (though, again, it has been better late in the season and looked pretty good against the Chargers). But the Patriots know where their success comes from. They lean on their passing attack (second-highest pass rate over expectation during the regular season, per NFL Next Gen Stats), and it pays dividends. I expect the Patriots to use a similar formula in the divisional round, even though they’ll face a tougher pass rush than what the Chargers had. — Walder
0:24
Patriots deck Herbert to force fumble
K’Lavon Chaisson drops Justin Herbert and forces a fumble.
Matchup background: The Steelers beat the Patriots 21-14 in Week 3 thanks in large part to five New England turnovers. The Patriots hold a 4-1 advantage in playoff meetings, most recently beating the Steelers in the 2016 AFC Championship Game. Houston and New England have not played since Week 6 of the 2024 season, a 41-21 Texans win. The Patriots have won both playoff meetings between the teams, most recently prevailing in a 2016 divisional round game. — ESPN
Stat to know: Maye (66) and running back Rhamondre Stevenson (53) became the first Patriots duo with 50-plus rushing yards in a playoff game since LeGarrette Blount (166) and Stevan Ridley (52) in the 2013 divisional round against the Colts. — ESPN Research
