4 Takeaways From Round 1 of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament

One day was madness, the other was mundane.

Split across Thursday and Friday, the opening round of this year’s NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament became an exercise in polarity. The former dripped with excitement in the form of Ohio State-TCU, Wisconsin-High Point, VCU-North Carolina and an instant classic between Siena and Duke in which the event’s No. 1 overall seed was nearly felled. The latter brought an onslaught of predictability as every single betting favorite advanced to the Round of 32 in the chalkiest of slates. 

Now we move onto the weekend. 

Here are my takeaways from the opening round of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament: 

1. St. John’s sends a message to the selection committee 

Zuby Ejiofor of St. John’s drives to the basket against Will Hornseth and Ben Schwieger of Northern Iowa. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

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By and large, there wasn’t much for the masses to complain about when this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament bracket was revealed earlier this month. The four No. 1 seeds had separated themselves enough during the regular season to quiet any debate about who deserved to land on the top line. The bubble was so weak and barren that nobody on the outside looking in could really have a legitimate gripe. Every team and every seed felt comfortably within the expected margin for error — except what happened to St. John’s. 

Winners of both the Big East regular season and tournament titles for the second consecutive season, the Red Storm (28-6 overall) were inexplicably handed a No. 5 seed and shipped across the country to play first- and second-round matchups in San Diego. Head coach Rick Pitino voiced his displeasure in a pregame news conference on Thursday afternoon. 

“We’re a 5-seed because the Big East is not regarded the way they used to be when I was at Louisville,” Pitino said. “So that’s the problem.”

Head coach Rick Pitino of the St. John’s Red Storm looks on during the first half against the UNI Panthers. (Photo by Orlando Ramirez/Getty Images)

There’s no question that the Big East largely endured a down season, evidenced by only three teams reaching the NCAA Tournament in St. John’s, UConn and Villanova. While Seton Hall (21-12, 10-10) permeated most bubble conversations down the stretch, other perennial league powers like Creighton and Marquette finished below .500 in conference play. When eighth-seeded Villanova lost its opening-round game by double digits to Utah State on Friday afternoon, the league’s reputation took yet another hit.

But punishing a Red Storm team that doled out a 20-point thumping of UConn in the Big East Tournament last weekend simply because the rest of the league is soft never made much sense. Especially considering how favorably the committee treated Duke (1-seed) and Virginia (3-seed) in what was nothing more than a modest season in the ACC. Two things can be true simultaneously: Sure, the Big East struggled this year, but St. John’s still performed well enough to receive a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

Though Pitino downplayed the idea that his team would harbor any kind of grudge when it took the floor against No. 12 Northern Iowa, the instant domination seemed to speak for itself. St. John’s opened the game on a 13-0 run and led by 19 points at halftime, smashing the Panthers on the glass and burying them with a barrage of seven makes from beyond the arc.

When the game finally and mercifully ended late on Friday evening, the Red Storm had cruised to an emphatic 79-53 victory that set up a meeting with fourth-seeded Kansas on Sunday. Just imagine what Pitino’s team could have done to an even lesser opponent if the committee seeded St. John’s properly.  

2. An injury to Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson could radically change the Midwest Region

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) cheers from the bench. (Photo by Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Everything about the potential outcome in the Midwest Region, where Michigan holds the 1-seed, quaked and quivered when Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson suffered an injury fewer than three minutes into his team’s opening-round game against No. 15 Tennessee State on Friday afternoon. 

Jefferson soared toward the hoop for an attempted layup with 17:23 remaining in the first half when he landed awkwardly beneath the basket, his left ankle rolling quite significantly. He slapped the floor in frustration and rocked back and forth in pain before the Cyclones’ trainer arrived at his side. 

Eventually, Jefferson was helped off the floor and into the locker room without putting any weight on his injured leg. Television cameras later showed Jefferson on crunches in the tunnel. He wore a boot in the locker room after the game.

“He has a sprained left ankle,” Iowa State head coach T.J. Otzelberger said in his postgame news conference. “We had an X-ray and the X-ray was negative. So we’ll continue to reevaluate over the next day or two and just see where things are when we get to Sunday.”

Though Iowa State pounded Tennessee State, 108-74, the Cyclones will need to adapt their game plan significantly if the injury to Jefferson proves significant enough to sideline him in the Round of 32 against No. 7 Kentucky on Sunday. Jefferson, a senior, is second on the team in scoring (16.9 points per game), first in rebounding (7.6 per game), second in assists (4.9 per game), second in steals (1.7 per game) and tied for first in blocks (0.9 per game). He is second in this season’s Player of the Year rankings on KenPom behind power forward Cameron Boozer of Duke.

Losing a player of Jefferson’s ilk for any prolonged period of time would drastically lower the Cyclones’ ceiling in a season when they’ve established themselves as one of the best teams in the country. Otzelberger’s group entered the Big Dance having notched victories over fellow NCAA Tournament teams St. John’s, Purdue, Iowa, UCF, Kansas, Houston and Texas Tech. They lost the Big 12 Tournament title game to then-No. 2 Arizona by just two points, pushing an elite 1-seed to the brink.

The short-term benefactor in this situation could be Kentucky, which needed a 40-foot shot at the end of regulation to force overtime against No. 10 Santa Clara on Friday before ultimately prevailing. Beyond that, No. 3 Virginia and top-seeded Michigan loom as the other heavyweights in this quadrant. How much time Jefferson might miss and how impactful he’ll be after a potential return are now the defining storylines in the Midwest Region.

3. New head coaches make an immediate splash in Round 1

Siena head coach Gerry McNamara reacts during the first half against Duke. (Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images)

In all likelihood, the heartrate for Duke head coach Jon Scheyer still hadn’t returned to normal levels during his postgame interview after an incredible scare. His Blue Devils, the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, narrowly escaped what would have been just the third 16-over-1 upset in the event’s history, erasing a double-digit deficit to fend off Siena. 

Scheyer promptly acknowledged what everyone who watched the game could plainly see. 

“G-Mac,” Scheyer said in reference to Saints’ head coach Gerry McNamara, “he outcoached me. They were more ready to play. And the readiness and toughness by our guys just to weather that storm in the second half, I’m proud of them. It’s great to get this win. I think there’s a lot that we can learn for moving forward.”

Though the Saints ultimately deflated in an eventual 71-65 loss to Duke, the nature of Siena’s performance was emblematic of a theme that personified the opening round: A flurry of first-year coaches guiding their teams to the Big Dance and then either pushing the powers that be to the brink or defeating them outright. Never has program building and roster reconstruction happened faster than it is right now — thanks to the transfer portal, an influx of talent from abroad and a new wave of forward-thinking coaches whose schemes are built on modern analytics. 

No. 12 High Point, under the direction of first-year coach Flynn Clayman, scored the biggest upset of the opening day by toppling No. 5 Wisconsin and burying 15 shots from beyond the arc. 

No. 11 VCU, led by first-year coach Phil Martelli Jr., the son of former Saint Joseph’s head coach Phil Martelli, roared back from a 19-point deficit to stun No. 6 North Carolina in overtime, riding a starting lineup that included three transfers and one true freshman. 

No. 11 Texas, navigating its first season under head coach Sean Miller, buried a last-second shot to beat fellow No. 11 seed NC State in the First Four before toppling No. 6 BYU in the opening round, matching its deepest NCAA Tournament run since getting to the Elite Eight in 2008. 

No. 10 Texas A&M, which made the bold decision to hire then-41-year-old Bucky McMillan last April, only a few years removed from when he was still coaching high school basketball, smothered No. 7 Saint Mary’s in a convincing double-digit win. 

All of those results speak to how quickly a program’s trajectory can change in the modern era. The age when athletic directors were willing to wait three, four and five years for new coaches to settle in is almost certainly gone. 

4. This version of Texas can make a deep run

Texas head coach Sean Miller looks on against the BYU Cougars. (Photo by Soobum Im/Getty Images)

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From now until the trend no longer holds true, one particular stat will continue to make the rounds in college basketball circles as fans across the country fill out their brackets. The most updated version looks like this: Twenty-two of the last 23 national champions have finished the season ranked among the top 25 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The lone outlier? A UConn team from 2014 that, improbably, won the whole thing as a 7-seed behind star guard Shabazz Napier. 

Some of the more interesting groups to consider in a tournament setting are the ones who navigated their entire pre-March Madness season with wildly lopsided metrics. Which brings us to 11-seed Texas, a team that arrived at the SEC Tournament with an offense ranked 16th nationally and a defense that checked in 119th, according to Torvik. Not exactly the balanced recipe that, in the 21st century, tends to produce national champions. 

But if you fast-forward a few weeks, the circumstances surrounding the Longhorns suddenly seem quite different. Back-to-back wins over fellow No. 11 seed NC State in the First Four and No. 6 BYU in the Round of 64 have painted head coach Sean Miller’s team in a far different light. Suddenly, Texas’ defense, which held the Wolfpack to 66 points and the Cougars to 71 points, now ranks 13th nationally since the NCAA Tournament began.

“I think the last couple of games, from a defensive perspective, is about as good as we’ve done all year,” Miller said in his postgame news conference after defeating BYU on Thursday night. “When you connect the defense with the offense that we’ve played, you have a team that’s certainly dangerous. That’s what I would call us right now.”

Miller is absolutely correct. His teams have always played high-level offense across prior coaching stints at Xavier (twice) and Arizona, with this year’s Texas squad following right along. The Longhorns have four players averaging at least 13 points per game entering Saturday’s matchup with No. 3 Gonzaga, and they draw more free throws than all but two teams in the country: Dayton and New Orleans. 

If the defense holds firm, Texas can hang with just about anyone. 

4½. What’s next?  

Here are a few storylines to watch over the weekend as we move into the Round of 32: 

No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 4 Nebraska (Saturday) — Whichever team emerges victorious on Saturday will be operating in rarified air. The Cornhuskers had never won an NCAA Tournament game prior to hammering No. 13 Troy in the opening round. The Commodores have not reached the Sweet 16 since 2007 and would be seeking the first Elite Eight appearance in school history. 

No. 10 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Houston (Saturday) — This is a fascinating contrast in styles when it comes to pace. The Aggies employ a hectic, up-tempo brand of basketball under McMillan that operates at a rate of 70.2 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks 39th nationally. The Cougars are far more methodical and deliberate under head coach Kelvin Sampson, playing an average of 63.4 possessions per 40 minutes, which ranks among the 15 slowest teams in the country.

No. 9 Utah State vs. No. 1 Arizona (Sunday) — Analytically speaking, Utah State has an excellent résumé for a mid-major program. The Aggies rank 27th nationally in offensive efficiency, 43rd in defensive efficiency and 31st in Wins Above Bubble. But prior to Friday’s win over Villanova, they had only played two games against teams in this year’s NCAA Tournament: a win over VCU and a loss to South Florida. Now, Arizona presents what is by far the toughest challenge of the season for a team that — at least on paper — should acquit itself reasonably well. 

No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Alabama (Sunday) — A fun game between two high-flying offenses projects as a battle of the supporting casts now that both teams are operating without key contributors. Texas Tech lost first-team All-American power forward JT Toppin (21.8 points, 10.8 rebounds per game) to a torn ACL on Feb. 17. Alabama entered the NCAA Tournament without guard Aden Holloway (16.8 points per game) following his arrest earlier this week on a felony drug charge.